Prediction markets
Polymarket lets users trade positions tied to outcomes of real-world events, with prices representing the market's implied probability.
A winning position can settle at a fixed value while an incorrect position can expire worthless, creating a simple but risky payoff structure.
How markets work
Creators define an event and outcomes, while participants provide liquidity and buy or sell shares as information changes.
The price is not a guaranteed forecast; it reflects the current balance of money, information and incentives among participants.
History and regulation
Blockchain settlement can make markets transparent and globally accessible, but it also raises questions about jurisdiction and permitted wagering.
Polymarket's history shows how product growth can coexist with regulatory scrutiny and restrictions on who may trade.
Evaluating a market
Users should review resolution rules, oracle design, liquidity, fees and the deadline before taking a position.
A clear event definition is as important as the market price because ambiguous settlement criteria can create disputes.